All Czech coalition parties could pay for ousting of Cunek-press

Deputy PM Jiri Cunek’s forced withdrawal from the cabinet is a difficult puzzle for all three Czech coalition parties that could be seriously rocked amid a government crisis that might break out if Cunek did not resign by himself, analyst Jiri Pehe says in Pravo today.

Cunek, head of the junior ruling Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), has faced criticism over his controversial statements on Romanies. In addition he has been prosecuted on suspicion of corruption, for which not only the opposition but also the junior ruling Greens (SZ) demand his departure.

PM Mirek Topolanek (Civic Democrats, ODS) recently said that the problem must be solved and that he would like "the Christian Democrats to persuade their chairman themselves."

Of the three coalition parties, the most difficult is the position of the senior ruling ODS or its chairman, Topolanek, and his intra-party supporters, Pehe writes.

If Topolanek were forced to resort to the extreme solution and dismiss Cunek, the government could collapse since at least part of the KDU-CSL leadership would probably revolt over this forcible step, Pehe writes.

This would probably be the end of Topolanek’s political career as well, as he would hardly get another – already third – chance to form a new government, Pehe continues.

Even if Topolanek got the chance, it would be immensely difficult to base the new government on the current coalition in a situation where the KDU-CSL were tackling an internal crisis, Pehe says.

Topolanek would be unlikely to have a chance to form a grand coalition with the Social Democrats (CSSD) either, as he wasted such a chance last autumn, Pehe writes.

The government’s collapse would thus result in internal turbulences also in the ODS and in the possible takeover of party leadership by the wing of Pavel Bem, ODS deputy chairman and Topolanek’s rival, Pehe says.

The Greens face a different dilemma. Although they have a mere six deputies in the 200-seat lower house, they have managed to gain an extraordinarily influential position in the government. They know that if they left the government in protest against Cunek’s remaining in it, they would most probably lose this position.

This would also weaken the position of SZ chairman Martin Bursik, who bet on entering the centre-right coalition in spite of doubts voiced by many SZ members, Pehe writes.

Nevertheless, the Greens’ position is the best of all government partners. If the Greens sank the government in the name of the principles they promote, many of their voters would undoubtedly appreciate this, Pehe says in an allusion to the SZ naming the fight against corruption and a friendly approach to minorities among its priorities.

The problem of the KDU-CSL is that it has remained split since last summer’s revolt by its regional branches against the then party leadership, Pehe continues.

If Cunek’s fell, the KDU-CSL would experience a battle for succession between those who promoted Cunek to the party helm and the former leaders.

Both KDU-CSL rival wings have discredited themselves to a certain extent. The new tops have done so by having bet on Cunek and by their continued support for him now. The previous tops have discredited themselves by showing willingness last summer to enter a government depending on the Communists (KSCM), in spite of their strong anti-communist rhetoric, Pehe says.

Moreover, the KDU-CSL has no distinguished faces to offer. Its deputy chairwoman and Defence Minister Vlasta Parkanova is the country’s most popular politician, according to public opinion polls, but she would be hardly acceptable to the KDU-CSL as party chairwoman. She came to the party from a "non-KDU-CSL" [right-wing liberal] environment. On top of it, being a woman is a disadvantage in the traditionally conservative KDU-CSL, Pehe writes.

Cunek thus poses a serious problem to all government parties. There still exists the chance that he will decide to step down by himself after consulting the rest of the KDU-CSL leadership, and to assist in his peaceful replacement.

If he failed to do so, he would be very probably forced to do so from outside, which might cause a serious political crisis and internal turbulences in all government parties, Pehe concludes.